CITF-TOPIC 2-Price fluctuation risk 学习笔记

价格波动风险-Price fluctuation risk

国内国际贸易都有这个风险。This risk exists for both domestic and international trade.

Traders dealing in commodities with volatile market prices are sometimes required to take risky positions. Prices of oil, chemicals, soft commodities (such as sugar, cocoa, cotton and coffee) as well as certain metals (such as steel) are known for their volatility波动.
When concluding a contract, sellers may be confronted面临 with higher than expected prices for commodities that they are required to sell. As a result, the purchase prices of these commodities may be higher than the prices they will receive from their buyers. If prices move in the opposite direction, this will have a similar negative effect on buyers. The increase in prices of raw materials required to manufacture goods may also have a negative impact. This could cause the seller’s profit margin to decrease or even disappear altogether.

降低风险的方法-POSSIBLE MITIGATION METHODS
The following methods are possible:
•讨价还价地位 – 卖方或买方处于较强的讨价还价地位，可能能够谈判其合同中的价格波动条款。但是，这并不总是可能的。
Bargaining position – sellers or buyers in a strong bargaining position might be able to negotiate price fluctuation clauses in their contracts. However, this is not always possible.
•固定价格 – 如果付款是通过跟单信用证协商的，则卖方可以确定货物的固定价格，而不管市场价格的变动如何。由于跟单信用证是不可撤销的，买方必须按合同上规定的价格接受货物。
Fixed price – if payment is negotiated through a documentary credit, a seller can be certain of a fixed price for goods, irrespective of the movement of the market price. Since a documentary credit is irrevocable, the buyer will have to accept the goods at the price specified on the contract.
•对冲 – 商品公司或金融机构提供通过期货或其他衍生品对冲价格波动风险的可能性。
Hedging – commodity houses or financial institutions offer the possibility of hedging price fluctuation risk by means of futures or other derivatives.

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CITF-TOPIC 2-Legal risk 学习笔记

法律风险-Legal risk

•知识产权——在某些国家保护技术的专利是否会在其他国家得到尊重？
Intellectual property – will patents专利 that protect technology in some countries be respected  in other countries?
•法律制度 – 国家之间的不同法律是否会影响基础合同的解释方式？
Legal systems – will different laws between countries affect the way an underlying contract is interpreted?
•法院的独立性 – 判例和法院的独立性是什么？如果发生诉讼，这可能会对卖方或买方的立场产生严重影响。
Independence of courts – what is the situation of jurisprudence and independence of courts? This can have a serious effect on a seller’s or a buyer’s position should a lawsuit arise.
•国际协议和当地法律 – 当地贸易法是否考虑国际协议？
International agreements and local law – do local trade laws take international agreements into consideration?
•付款禁令 – 买家在他们的国家获得付款禁令或法院的难易程度？
Payment injunctions – how easy is it for buyers to get payment injunctions or court attachments in their country?
•当地接受ICC规则 – 当地实践和法规在多大程度上接受ICC的UCP 600，URC 522，URDG 745或ISP98等国际惯例？
Local acceptance of ICC rules – to what extent do local practices and regulations accept frameworks such as ICC’s UCP 600, URC 522, URDG 745 or ISP98?

降低风险的办法-POSSIBLE MITIGATION METHOD
Both parties should conduct their own research and seek legal advice from competent law firms. The legal risk connected to some settlement methods can be mitigated by using ICC’s rules.

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CITF-TOPIC 2-Foreign exchange and interest rate fluctuation risk 学习笔记

外汇及利率波动风险-Foreign exchange and interest rate fluctuation risk
议价能力-Bargaining power

谁的议价能力强，就由谁决定使用其货币。（The choice of currency used is largely determined by the relative bargaining power or by customs and practice. If the seller is in a strong bargaining position, payment is likely to be made in the seller’s currency. The opposite will apply if the buyer is in a strong bargaining position.）

以美元计价的商品-Commodities denominated in US dollars

一些商品，如石油，无论买方或卖方位于何种地位，总是以美元计价。Some commodities, such as oil, are always denominated in US dollars regardless of where the buyer or seller is based. Both parties will, therefore, inevitably不可避免地 face foreign exchange risk.

利率波动-Interest rate fluctuation

与汇率波动一样，利率变动会影响融资成本，导致意外的损失或利润。As with fluctuations in exchange rates, interest rate movements can affect the cost of financing, resulting in an unexpected loss or profit. It is beyond the scope of this qualification to explain interest rate fluctuation in more detail.

一些降低风险的方法-POSSIBLE MITIGATION METHODS

1.买卖方可能会在合同中加入随利率、汇率波动的价格条款。If the buyer or the seller is in a strong bargaining position, they will be able to include price fluctuation clauses in their contracts. The price of the goods will then fluctuate according to the movement of exchange rates or interest rates.

2.银行可以提供产品来降低货币兑换和利率波动风险。Banks can offer products to mitigate currency exchange and interest rate fluctuation risk.
• 远期交易合约-Forward exchange contracts – these are used to fix future currency exchange rates.
• 货币兑换期权-Currency exchange options – buyers of options are protected against exchange rate fluctuations that are to their disadvantage.
• 远期费率协议-Forward rate agreements – buyers or sellers can mitigate interest rate fluctuation risk through forward rate agreements or various other interest rate options.

对冲-HEDGING
企业或投资者通过采取倾向于相互抵消的头寸来限制风险的做法。“The practice by which a business or investor limits risk by taking positions that tend to offset each other.” (Dictionary.com, 2021)

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CITF-TOPIC 2-Transportation risk 学习笔记

运输风险-Transportation risk

控制风险的方式：保险，Incoterms® rules
Appropriate insurance is available to cover such risks. Guidance from ICC, available to all parties in the form of Incoterms® rules, helps reduce these risks.

Incoterms® rules are internationally accepted terms that set out the responsibilities of the two parties with regard to transport and insurance. The agreed Incoterms® rule that is incorporated into the sales contract will determine who bears the risks involved in transportation. The party that bears the transportation risk will have to purchase insurance.（谁承担运输所涉及的风险，谁买保险。）

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CITF-TOPIC 2-Commercial risk 学习笔记

商业风险-Commercial risk

这涉及合同一方当事人可能无法或不愿意履行其义务的可能性。This involves the possibility that one of the parties to a contract may be unable or unwilling to fulfil  its obligations.

买方无法或不愿付款-The buyer is unable or unwilling to pay

买方可能由于现金流问题，财务状况恶化甚至破产而无法付款。
A buyer could be unable to pay due to a cash flow problem, a deteriorating financial position or even bankruptcy.

There are many reasons why a buyer could be unwilling to accept a delivery of goods. The quality or quantity of the merchandise delivered could be in question; alternatively, the buyer could have made an estimation error（估计错误） when ordering the goods and then have found that part or all of the shipment is no longer needed. In these situations, the seller will need to be aware of the commercial risks involved.

（应对买方风险，保护卖方利益）降低风险的方法：

• 预付款-payment in advance;
• 保函或备用信用证-payment guarantee (or standby letters of credit);
• 信用证-documentary credits;
• 跟单托收-documentary collections; and
• 信用保险-credit insurance.

卖方无法交付货物或服务-The seller is unable to deliver goods or services 

Buyers should be aware that a seller can be in default and commercial risk can occur if:
• the seller is unable to deliver the goods;
• the goods delivered are of a poorer quality or lower quantity than ordered; or
• the goods are delivered late.
Faced with any of the scenarios above, buyers may be unable to profit from resale of the goods or to  fulfil contractual obligations towards customers due to lack of stock or raw materials.

（应对卖方风险，保护买方利益）降低风险的方法：

• 货到付款-payment after delivery of the goods;
• 履约保函、备用信用证-performance‑related guarantees or standby letters of credit.
• 信用证-documentary credits;
• 跟单托收-documentary collections; and
• 由独立检验机构检验货物-inspection of the goods by an independent surveyor.

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CITF-TOPIC 2-country risk 学习笔记

国家风险-country risk

所有跨境贸易产生的所有风险。（ all risks arising from cross‑border trade. ）

许多（但不是全部）国家风险可以减轻：
预付款-PAYMENT IN ADVANCE
保险-INSURANCE
保函/备用信用证-PAYMENT GUARANTEE/STANDBY LETTERS OF CREDIT
信用证-LETTERS OF CREDIT

政治风险-Political risks

The following are some key political issues that exporters and importers should consider:
• 多变和双边协议 – 是否有迹象表明一个国家可能正在退出多边贸易协定？（Bilateral and multilateral agreements – are there signs that a country may be removing itself from a multilateral trading agreement? ）
•历史关系 – 这些会阻碍或有利于正在谈判的协议吗？
（Historical relationships – will these hinder or benefit the deal being negotiated? ）
• 政治制度 – 制度的稳定性如何？是否有任何迹象表明对商业和/或贸易的控制过度？（Political system – how stable is the system? Are there any signs of excessive control over business and/or trade?）
• 政治制裁（Political sanctions）
• 贸易壁垒 – 是否有任何进口关税或配额鼓励民族主义和企业国有化？
（Barriers to trade – are there any import duties or quotas that encourage nationalism and the nationalisation of businesses?

语言和文化风险-Language and cultural risks

Risks involving language, culture and religion do not only affect international trade. These risks can also be present in domestic trade.
• 习俗、惯例和礼仪 – 在社会或商业行为中，是否有任何宗教或文化差异需要得到尊重？例如，产品名称可能会导致冒犯或传达错误的形象。
(Customs, practices and etiquette – are there any religious or cultural differences manifest in social or business practices that need to be respected? For example, the name of a product could cause offence or convey the wrong image. )
•谈判风格 – 这些方式可能因国家而异。例如，讨价还价在一个国家可能是惯例，但在另一个国家却是令人反感的。大公司对中小企业或微型实体的讨价还价地位更强。
（Negotiation styles – these can differ between countries. For example, bargaining may be customary in one country but offensive in another.stronger bargaining position that a large corporate will have over an SME medium – sized enterprises or micro‑entity.）
•劳动法 – 有关劳工和工会的政策可能会有所不同。是否有防止童工的政策？
（Labour laws – policies regarding labour and trade unions may vary. Are there policies in place to prevent child labour?）
•语言 – 虽然英语是国际贸易的语言，但它的使用并不普遍。英语识字率会有所不同。许多其他语言也在多个国家/地区使用。这促进了这些国家之间的贸易。中文，阿拉伯语，印地语，乌尔都语，法语，德语，西班牙语和葡萄牙语是几个例子。
（Language – while English is the language of international trade, its use is not universal.English literacy rates will vary. Many other languages are also used in more than one country. This facilitates trade between these countries. Chinese, Arabic, Hindi, Urdu, French,German, Spanish and Portuguese are a few examples.）

技术相关风险
Technology‑related risks

•法律和 IT 要求 – 公司使用的进口硬件或软件是否符合当地法规？是否符合系统要求？可能需要进行修改。
（Legal and IT requirements – does the imported hardware or software that the company uses comply with local legislation? Is it compatible with system requirements? Modifications may be necessary. ）
•安全和安保 – 交易对手所在国家/地区的标准可能高于或低于您所在国家/地区的标准。熟悉这些要求并确保满足这些要求。
（Safety and security – standards in the counterparty’s country could be either higher or lower than in your country. Familiarise yourself with these requirements and ensure they are met. ）
•通信工具 – 您的产品或服务是否必须访问互联网？是否有足够的通信工具和系统？ Communication tools – is internet access necessary for your product or service to function? Are adequate communication tools and systems in place?

环境风险-Environmental risks

•制造方法 – 是否有法律要求消费的商品必须以环保的方式生产？
（Manufacturing methods – are there laws in place requiring that goods consumed have to be produced in an environmentally friendly manner?）
•可持续政策 – 是否有法规来应对气候变化和全球变暖和/或保护环境的另一个方面？ （Sustainable policies – are there regulations in place to combat climate change and global warming and/or to protect another aspect of the environment?）

经济风险-Economic risk

一个遭受经济衰退的国家可能构成经济风险。相反，高增长也可能带来挑战。值得关注的主要经济指标包括：
A country suffering from an economic downturn can pose an economic risk. Conversely, high growth can also present challenges. Key economic indicators to watch include:
•国内总产值增长率- GDP growth rates;
•利率 interest rates;
•就业水平 employment levels.

转让风险-Transfer risk

当买方无法将其当地货币兑换成合同约定的付款货币时，就会发生这种情况。This occurs when buyers are unable to exchange their local currency for the currency contractually agreed for payment.

Countries that are highly dependent on income earned in a foreign currency are
subject to transfer risk. 这些经济体往往高度依赖硬商品或软商品或旅游业等特定服务的出口。These economies are often highly dependent on the export of hard or soft commodities or specific services such as tourism. A natural disaster could affect crops. Fluctuations in markets could have an impact on price. Transfer risk is often underestimated. 许多非洲和拉丁美洲国家以及一些新兴的亚洲经济体都面临这种风险。Many African and Latin American countries are subject to this risk, as are some emerging Asian economies. For example, transfer risk can occur in Nigeria and Mexico where there is a dependence on oil. It can also occur in Egypt where there is a dependence on tourism. Countries dependent on the export of sugar, cocoa, palm oil and iron ore also potentially face transfer risk.

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CITF-TOPIC 2-Risks involved in international trade 学习笔记

2.1 国际贸易中涉及的风险-Risks involved in international trade

具体分为以下几类风险，点击即可到达链接进行学习：
• 国家风险-country risk;
• 商业风险-commercial risk;
• 运输风险-transportation risk;
• 外汇及利率波动风险-foreign exchange and interest rate fluctuation risk;
• 法律风险-legal risk;
• 基于贸易的金融犯罪风险-trade‑based financial crime risk;
• 行政风险-administrative risk;
• 价格波动风险-price fluctuation risk; 
• 制造风险-manufacturing risk.

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CITF-TOPIC 1- International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) 学习笔记

国际商会-International Chamber of Commerce (ICC)

国际商会成立于1919年，如今在全球联系着包括100多个国家的4500多万家公司，商会和商业协会。国际商会与各自国家的国际商会成员合作，解决他们的关切，并向其政府转达国际商会制定的商业意见。（The ICC was founded in 1919. Today its global network comprises over 45 million companies, chambers of commerce and business associations in more than 100 countries. National committees work with ICC members in their countries to address their concerns and convey to their governments the business views formulated by the ICC. ）

国际商会的简介

国际商会的使命-The fundamental mission of ICC：促进开放的国际贸易和投资，帮助企业应对全球化的挑战和机会。(promote open international trade and investment and help business meet the challenges and opportunities of globalisation. )

国际商会三个主要工作-ICC has three main activities：
1）规则的设置-rule setting
2）争议的解决- dispute resolution
3）政策的宣传-olicy advocacy

国际商会还提供基本服务，其中最重要的是国际商会国际仲裁法院。(ICC also provides essential services, foremost among them the ICC International Court of Arbitration, the world’s leading arbitral institution. )

另一项服务是世界商会联合会，这是国际商会的全球商会网络，促进商会最佳实践的互动和交流。Another service is the World Chambers Federation, ICC’s worldwide network of chambers of commerce, fostering interaction and exchange of chamber best practice.

除此之外，国际商会还提供专门的培训和研讨会，它亦出版了行业领先的国际商业，银行和仲裁实用和教育参考刊物。(ICC also offers specialised training and seminars and is an industry‑leading publisher of practical and educational reference tools for international business, banking and arbitration.)

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CITF-TOPIC 1- World Trade Organisation (WTO) 学习笔记

世界贸易组织-World Trade Organisation (WTO)

世贸组织成立于1995年，前身是关税及贸易总协定。目前（2021年3月），世贸组织有164个成员，并成功缔结了16项不同的多边协定（所有世贸组织成员都是其缔约方）（世贸组织，2021年）。（The WTO was formed in 1995 and arose from the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. At the time of writing (March 2021), the WTO had 164 members and had successfully concluded 16 different multilateral agreements (to which all WTO members are parties) (WTO, 2021).）

贸易便利化协定-Trade facilitation agreement

经世贸组织三分之二成员批准，多边贸易便利化协议于2017年生效。它涵盖了加快货物（包括过境货物）的流动、放行和清关的规定，以及海关与其他有关当局就贸易便利化和海关合规问题进行有效合作的措施。（A multilateral trade facilitation agreement ratified by two‑thirds of the WTO’s membership came into force in 2017. It contains provisions for expediting the movement, release and clearance of goods, including goods in transit as well as measures for effective co‑operation between customs and other appropriate authorities on trade facilitation and customs compliance issues (WTO, 2018).）

自由贸易壁垒的增加-Rise in barriers to free trade

中国和美国作为世界上最大的两个经济体卷入了这场场关于关税的斗争，提高了全球自由贸易壁垒。他们对彼此价值数十亿美元的商品征收关税。（China and the USA, the world’s two largest economies, have been involved in a battle about tariffs that has raised barriers to free trade worldwide. They have imposed tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of one another’s goods. At the time of writing (March 2021), negotiations are still ongoing.）

世贸组织介入，帮助争端各方达成协议。

Trading nations often find that they have conflicting interests. The WTO steps in to help disputing parties reach agreement.
It provides: “a forum for negotiating agreements aimed at reducing obstacles（障碍） to international trade and ensuring a level playing field for all, thus contributing to economic growth and development [and] [. . .]
a legal and institutional framework for the implementation（实现）and monitoring（检测）of these agreements, as well as for settling disputes arising from their interpretation and application.” (WTO, 2021)

知识点：
Roles played by the World Trade Organization (WTO)
1.Negotiation of agreements
2.Constructing the legal framework of agreements
3.Dispute resolution

 

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CITF-TOPIC 1- Trade agreements 学习笔记

贸易协定-Trade agreements

注意本节考点：不用记各种贸易协定的内容，但是要记 多边协定、双边协定的定义！！

双边协定-Bilateral agreements
两贸易国之间设定的共同遵守的协定。（An agreement between two countries setting out the conditions under which trade between them will be conducted.）
多边协定-Multilateral agreements
旨在扩大和自由化国际贸易的政府间协议，这些协议涵盖了一系列非歧视性、可预见的和条件透明的权利和义务。（Intergovernmental agreements aimed at expanding and liberalising international trade under non‑discriminatory, predictable and transparent conditions set out in an array of rights and obligations.）

多边协定的例子：

欧洲单一市场计划-The European Single Market Programme (SMP)
This was signed by European Union (EU) member states in February 1986. It contains around 270 measures to create a borderless single market for goods, capital, services and people.

关税同盟-Customs union
欧盟也是关税同盟。其成员国对来自非欧盟国家的进口产品征收共同关税也可以在没有边境检查的情况下自由交易。欧盟国家自动受益于欧盟与其他国家达成的贸易协议，但不能设定自己的关税。（ The EU is also a customs union. Its members impose common tariffs on imports from non‑EU countries and can trade freely with each other without border checks. EU countries automatically benefit from trade deals that the EU strikes with other states but cannot set their own tariffs.）

其他贸易协定和经济组织

  • 非洲大陆自由贸易区-African Continental Free Trade Area;
  • 东盟自由贸易区-ASEAN Free Trade Area;
  • 全面和进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定-Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP);
  • 欧亚经济联盟-Eurasian Economic Union;
  • 欧盟委员会：双边贸易和投资协定-European Commission: bilateral trade and investment agreements;
  • 大阿拉伯自由贸易区-Greater Arab Free Trade Area;
  • 北美自由贸易协定-North American Free Trade Agreement;
  • 区域全面经济伙伴关系-Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership;
  • 南部非洲发展共同体-Southern African Development Community.
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