CITF-TOPIC 2-country risk 学习笔记

国家风险-country risk

所有跨境贸易产生的所有风险。( all risks arising from cross‑border trade. )

许多(但不是全部)国家风险可以减轻:
预付款-PAYMENT IN ADVANCE
保险-INSURANCE
保函/备用信用证-PAYMENT GUARANTEE/STANDBY LETTERS OF CREDIT
信用证-LETTERS OF CREDIT


政治风险-Political risks

The following are some key political issues that exporters and importers should consider:
多变和双边协议 – 是否有迹象表明一个国家可能正在退出多边贸易协定?(Bilateral and multilateral agreements – are there signs that a country may be removing itself from a multilateral trading agreement? )
历史关系 – 这些会阻碍或有利于正在谈判的协议吗?
Historical relationships – will these hinder or benefit the deal being negotiated? )
政治制度 – 制度的稳定性如何?是否有任何迹象表明对商业和/或贸易的控制过度?(Political system – how stable is the system? Are there any signs of excessive control over business and/or trade?)
政治制裁Political sanctions
贸易壁垒 – 是否有任何进口关税或配额鼓励民族主义和企业国有化?
Barriers to trade – are there any import duties or quotas that encourage nationalism and the nationalisation of businesses?


语言和文化风险-Language and cultural risks

Risks involving language, culture and religion do not only affect international trade. These risks can also be present in domestic trade.
习俗、惯例和礼仪 – 在社会或商业行为中,是否有任何宗教或文化差异需要得到尊重?例如,产品名称可能会导致冒犯或传达错误的形象。
(Customs, practices and etiquette – are there any religious or cultural differences manifest in social or business practices that need to be respected? For example, the name of a product could cause offence or convey the wrong image. )
谈判风格 – 这些方式可能因国家而异。例如,讨价还价在一个国家可能是惯例,但在另一个国家却是令人反感的。大公司对中小企业或微型实体的讨价还价地位更强。
Negotiation styles – these can differ between countries. For example, bargaining may be customary in one country but offensive in another.stronger bargaining position that a large corporate will have over an SME medium – sized enterprises or micro‑entity.)
劳动法 – 有关劳工和工会的政策可能会有所不同。是否有防止童工的政策?
Labour laws – policies regarding labour and trade unions may vary. Are there policies in place to prevent child labour?)
语言 – 虽然英语是国际贸易的语言,但它的使用并不普遍。英语识字率会有所不同。许多其他语言也在多个国家/地区使用。这促进了这些国家之间的贸易。中文,阿拉伯语,印地语,乌尔都语,法语,德语,西班牙语和葡萄牙语是几个例子。
Language – while English is the language of international trade, its use is not universal.English literacy rates will vary. Many other languages are also used in more than one country. This facilitates trade between these countries. Chinese, Arabic, Hindi, Urdu, French,German, Spanish and Portuguese are a few examples.)


技术相关风险
Technology‑related risks

法律和 IT 要求 – 公司使用的进口硬件或软件是否符合当地法规?是否符合系统要求?可能需要进行修改。
Legal and IT requirements – does the imported hardware or software that the company uses comply with local legislation? Is it compatible with system requirements? Modifications may be necessary. )
安全和安保 – 交易对手所在国家/地区的标准可能高于或低于您所在国家/地区的标准。熟悉这些要求并确保满足这些要求。
Safety and security – standards in the counterparty’s country could be either higher or lower than in your country. Familiarise yourself with these requirements and ensure they are met. )
通信工具 – 您的产品或服务是否必须访问互联网?是否有足够的通信工具和系统? Communication tools – is internet access necessary for your product or service to function? Are adequate communication tools and systems in place?


环境风险-Environmental risks

制造方法 – 是否有法律要求消费的商品必须以环保的方式生产?
Manufacturing methods – are there laws in place requiring that goods consumed have to be produced in an environmentally friendly manner?)
可持续政策 – 是否有法规来应对气候变化和全球变暖和/或保护环境的另一个方面? (Sustainable policies – are there regulations in place to combat climate change and global warming and/or to protect another aspect of the environment?)


经济风险-Economic risk

一个遭受经济衰退的国家可能构成经济风险。相反,高增长也可能带来挑战。值得关注的主要经济指标包括:
A country suffering from an economic downturn can pose an economic risk. Conversely, high growth can also present challenges. Key economic indicators to watch include:
•国内总产值增长率- GDP growth rates;
•利率 interest rates;
•就业水平 employment levels.


转让风险-Transfer risk

当买方无法将其当地货币兑换成合同约定的付款货币时,就会发生这种情况。This occurs when buyers are unable to exchange their local currency for the currency contractually agreed for payment.

Countries that are highly dependent on income earned in a foreign currency are
subject to transfer risk. 这些经济体往往高度依赖硬商品或软商品或旅游业等特定服务的出口。These economies are often highly dependent on the export of hard or soft commodities or specific services such as tourism. A natural disaster could affect crops. Fluctuations in markets could have an impact on price. Transfer risk is often underestimated. 许多非洲和拉丁美洲国家以及一些新兴的亚洲经济体都面临这种风险。Many African and Latin American countries are subject to this risk, as are some emerging Asian economies. For example, transfer risk can occur in Nigeria and Mexico where there is a dependence on oil. It can also occur in Egypt where there is a dependence on tourism. Countries dependent on the export of sugar, cocoa, palm oil and iron ore also potentially face transfer risk.

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