分类：CITF

CITF-TOPIC 2-Transportation risk 学习笔记

运输风险-Transportation risk

控制风险的方式：保险，Incoterms® rules
Appropriate insurance is available to cover such risks. Guidance from ICC, available to all parties in the form of Incoterms® rules, helps reduce these risks.

Incoterms® rules are internationally accepted terms that set out the responsibilities of the two parties with regard to transport and insurance. The agreed Incoterms® rule that is incorporated into the sales contract will determine who bears the risks involved in transportation. The party that bears the transportation risk will have to purchase insurance.（谁承担运输所涉及的风险，谁买保险。）

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CITF-TOPIC 2-Commercial risk 学习笔记

商业风险-Commercial risk

这涉及合同一方当事人可能无法或不愿意履行其义务的可能性。This involves the possibility that one of the parties to a contract may be unable or unwilling to fulfil  its obligations.

买方无法或不愿付款-The buyer is unable or unwilling to pay

买方可能由于现金流问题，财务状况恶化甚至破产而无法付款。
A buyer could be unable to pay due to a cash flow problem, a deteriorating financial position or even bankruptcy.

There are many reasons why a buyer could be unwilling to accept a delivery of goods. The quality or quantity of the merchandise delivered could be in question; alternatively, the buyer could have made an estimation error（估计错误） when ordering the goods and then have found that part or all of the shipment is no longer needed. In these situations, the seller will need to be aware of the commercial risks involved.

（应对买方风险，保护卖方利益）降低风险的方法：

• 预付款-payment in advance;
• 保函或备用信用证-payment guarantee (or standby letters of credit);
• 信用证-documentary credits;
• 跟单托收-documentary collections; and
• 信用保险-credit insurance.

卖方无法交付货物或服务-The seller is unable to deliver goods or services 

Buyers should be aware that a seller can be in default and commercial risk can occur if:
• the seller is unable to deliver the goods;
• the goods delivered are of a poorer quality or lower quantity than ordered; or
• the goods are delivered late.
Faced with any of the scenarios above, buyers may be unable to profit from resale of the goods or to  fulfil contractual obligations towards customers due to lack of stock or raw materials.

（应对卖方风险，保护买方利益）降低风险的方法：

• 货到付款-payment after delivery of the goods;
• 履约保函、备用信用证-performance‑related guarantees or standby letters of credit.
• 信用证-documentary credits;
• 跟单托收-documentary collections; and
• 由独立检验机构检验货物-inspection of the goods by an independent surveyor.

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CITF-TOPIC 2-country risk 学习笔记

国家风险-country risk

所有跨境贸易产生的所有风险。（ all risks arising from cross‑border trade. ）

许多（但不是全部）国家风险可以减轻：
预付款-PAYMENT IN ADVANCE
保险-INSURANCE
保函/备用信用证-PAYMENT GUARANTEE/STANDBY LETTERS OF CREDIT
信用证-LETTERS OF CREDIT

政治风险-Political risks

The following are some key political issues that exporters and importers should consider:
• 多变和双边协议 – 是否有迹象表明一个国家可能正在退出多边贸易协定？（Bilateral and multilateral agreements – are there signs that a country may be removing itself from a multilateral trading agreement? ）
•历史关系 – 这些会阻碍或有利于正在谈判的协议吗？
（Historical relationships – will these hinder or benefit the deal being negotiated? ）
• 政治制度 – 制度的稳定性如何？是否有任何迹象表明对商业和/或贸易的控制过度？（Political system – how stable is the system? Are there any signs of excessive control over business and/or trade?）
• 政治制裁（Political sanctions）
• 贸易壁垒 – 是否有任何进口关税或配额鼓励民族主义和企业国有化？
（Barriers to trade – are there any import duties or quotas that encourage nationalism and the nationalisation of businesses?

语言和文化风险-Language and cultural risks

Risks involving language, culture and religion do not only affect international trade. These risks can also be present in domestic trade.
• 习俗、惯例和礼仪 – 在社会或商业行为中，是否有任何宗教或文化差异需要得到尊重？例如，产品名称可能会导致冒犯或传达错误的形象。
(Customs, practices and etiquette – are there any religious or cultural differences manifest in social or business practices that need to be respected? For example, the name of a product could cause offence or convey the wrong image. )
•谈判风格 – 这些方式可能因国家而异。例如，讨价还价在一个国家可能是惯例，但在另一个国家却是令人反感的。大公司对中小企业或微型实体的讨价还价地位更强。
（Negotiation styles – these can differ between countries. For example, bargaining may be customary in one country but offensive in another.stronger bargaining position that a large corporate will have over an SME medium – sized enterprises or micro‑entity.）
•劳动法 – 有关劳工和工会的政策可能会有所不同。是否有防止童工的政策？
（Labour laws – policies regarding labour and trade unions may vary. Are there policies in place to prevent child labour?）
•语言 – 虽然英语是国际贸易的语言，但它的使用并不普遍。英语识字率会有所不同。许多其他语言也在多个国家/地区使用。这促进了这些国家之间的贸易。中文，阿拉伯语，印地语，乌尔都语，法语，德语，西班牙语和葡萄牙语是几个例子。
（Language – while English is the language of international trade, its use is not universal.English literacy rates will vary. Many other languages are also used in more than one country. This facilitates trade between these countries. Chinese, Arabic, Hindi, Urdu, French,German, Spanish and Portuguese are a few examples.）

技术相关风险
Technology‑related risks

•法律和 IT 要求 – 公司使用的进口硬件或软件是否符合当地法规？是否符合系统要求？可能需要进行修改。
（Legal and IT requirements – does the imported hardware or software that the company uses comply with local legislation? Is it compatible with system requirements? Modifications may be necessary. ）
•安全和安保 – 交易对手所在国家/地区的标准可能高于或低于您所在国家/地区的标准。熟悉这些要求并确保满足这些要求。
（Safety and security – standards in the counterparty’s country could be either higher or lower than in your country. Familiarise yourself with these requirements and ensure they are met. ）
•通信工具 – 您的产品或服务是否必须访问互联网？是否有足够的通信工具和系统？ Communication tools – is internet access necessary for your product or service to function? Are adequate communication tools and systems in place?

环境风险-Environmental risks

•制造方法 – 是否有法律要求消费的商品必须以环保的方式生产？
（Manufacturing methods – are there laws in place requiring that goods consumed have to be produced in an environmentally friendly manner?）
•可持续政策 – 是否有法规来应对气候变化和全球变暖和/或保护环境的另一个方面？ （Sustainable policies – are there regulations in place to combat climate change and global warming and/or to protect another aspect of the environment?）

经济风险-Economic risk

一个遭受经济衰退的国家可能构成经济风险。相反，高增长也可能带来挑战。值得关注的主要经济指标包括：
A country suffering from an economic downturn can pose an economic risk. Conversely, high growth can also present challenges. Key economic indicators to watch include:
•国内总产值增长率- GDP growth rates;
•利率 interest rates;
•就业水平 employment levels.

转让风险-Transfer risk

当买方无法将其当地货币兑换成合同约定的付款货币时，就会发生这种情况。This occurs when buyers are unable to exchange their local currency for the currency contractually agreed for payment.

Countries that are highly dependent on income earned in a foreign currency are
subject to transfer risk. 这些经济体往往高度依赖硬商品或软商品或旅游业等特定服务的出口。These economies are often highly dependent on the export of hard or soft commodities or specific services such as tourism. A natural disaster could affect crops. Fluctuations in markets could have an impact on price. Transfer risk is often underestimated. 许多非洲和拉丁美洲国家以及一些新兴的亚洲经济体都面临这种风险。Many African and Latin American countries are subject to this risk, as are some emerging Asian economies. For example, transfer risk can occur in Nigeria and Mexico where there is a dependence on oil. It can also occur in Egypt where there is a dependence on tourism. Countries dependent on the export of sugar, cocoa, palm oil and iron ore also potentially face transfer risk.

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CITF-TOPIC 2-Risks involved in international trade 学习笔记

2.1 国际贸易中涉及的风险-Risks involved in international trade

具体分为以下几类风险，点击即可到达链接进行学习：
• 国家风险-country risk;
• 商业风险-commercial risk;
• 运输风险-transportation risk;
• 外汇及利率波动风险-foreign exchange and interest rate fluctuation risk;
• 法律风险-legal risk;
• 基于贸易的金融犯罪风险-trade‑based financial crime risk;
• 行政风险-administrative risk;
• 价格波动风险-price fluctuation risk; 
• 制造风险-manufacturing risk.

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CITF-TOPIC 1- International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) 学习笔记

国际商会-International Chamber of Commerce (ICC)

国际商会成立于1919年，如今在全球联系着包括100多个国家的4500多万家公司，商会和商业协会。国际商会与各自国家的国际商会成员合作，解决他们的关切，并向其政府转达国际商会制定的商业意见。（The ICC was founded in 1919. Today its global network comprises over 45 million companies, chambers of commerce and business associations in more than 100 countries. National committees work with ICC members in their countries to address their concerns and convey to their governments the business views formulated by the ICC. ）

国际商会的简介

国际商会的使命-The fundamental mission of ICC：促进开放的国际贸易和投资，帮助企业应对全球化的挑战和机会。(promote open international trade and investment and help business meet the challenges and opportunities of globalisation. )

国际商会三个主要工作-ICC has three main activities：
1）规则的设置-rule setting
2）争议的解决- dispute resolution
3）政策的宣传-olicy advocacy

国际商会还提供基本服务，其中最重要的是国际商会国际仲裁法院。(ICC also provides essential services, foremost among them the ICC International Court of Arbitration, the world’s leading arbitral institution. )

另一项服务是世界商会联合会，这是国际商会的全球商会网络，促进商会最佳实践的互动和交流。Another service is the World Chambers Federation, ICC’s worldwide network of chambers of commerce, fostering interaction and exchange of chamber best practice.

除此之外，国际商会还提供专门的培训和研讨会，它亦出版了行业领先的国际商业，银行和仲裁实用和教育参考刊物。(ICC also offers specialised training and seminars and is an industry‑leading publisher of practical and educational reference tools for international business, banking and arbitration.)

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CITF-TOPIC 1- World Trade Organisation (WTO) 学习笔记

世界贸易组织-World Trade Organisation (WTO)

世贸组织成立于1995年，前身是关税及贸易总协定。目前（2021年3月），世贸组织有164个成员，并成功缔结了16项不同的多边协定（所有世贸组织成员都是其缔约方）（世贸组织，2021年）。（The WTO was formed in 1995 and arose from the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. At the time of writing (March 2021), the WTO had 164 members and had successfully concluded 16 different multilateral agreements (to which all WTO members are parties) (WTO, 2021).）

贸易便利化协定-Trade facilitation agreement

经世贸组织三分之二成员批准，多边贸易便利化协议于2017年生效。它涵盖了加快货物（包括过境货物）的流动、放行和清关的规定，以及海关与其他有关当局就贸易便利化和海关合规问题进行有效合作的措施。（A multilateral trade facilitation agreement ratified by two‑thirds of the WTO’s membership came into force in 2017. It contains provisions for expediting the movement, release and clearance of goods, including goods in transit as well as measures for effective co‑operation between customs and other appropriate authorities on trade facilitation and customs compliance issues (WTO, 2018).）

自由贸易壁垒的增加-Rise in barriers to free trade

中国和美国作为世界上最大的两个经济体卷入了这场场关于关税的斗争，提高了全球自由贸易壁垒。他们对彼此价值数十亿美元的商品征收关税。（China and the USA, the world’s two largest economies, have been involved in a battle about tariffs that has raised barriers to free trade worldwide. They have imposed tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of one another’s goods. At the time of writing (March 2021), negotiations are still ongoing.）

世贸组织介入，帮助争端各方达成协议。

Trading nations often find that they have conflicting interests. The WTO steps in to help disputing parties reach agreement.
It provides: “a forum for negotiating agreements aimed at reducing obstacles（障碍） to international trade and ensuring a level playing field for all, thus contributing to economic growth and development [and] [. . .]
a legal and institutional framework for the implementation（实现）and monitoring（检测）of these agreements, as well as for settling disputes arising from their interpretation and application.” (WTO, 2021)

知识点：
Roles played by the World Trade Organization (WTO)
1.Negotiation of agreements
2.Constructing the legal framework of agreements
3.Dispute resolution

 

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CITF-TOPIC 1- Trade agreements 学习笔记

贸易协定-Trade agreements

注意本节考点：不用记各种贸易协定的内容，但是要记 多边协定、双边协定的定义！！

双边协定-Bilateral agreements
两贸易国之间设定的共同遵守的协定。（An agreement between two countries setting out the conditions under which trade between them will be conducted.）
多边协定-Multilateral agreements
旨在扩大和自由化国际贸易的政府间协议，这些协议涵盖了一系列非歧视性、可预见的和条件透明的权利和义务。（Intergovernmental agreements aimed at expanding and liberalising international trade under non‑discriminatory, predictable and transparent conditions set out in an array of rights and obligations.）

多边协定的例子：

欧洲单一市场计划-The European Single Market Programme (SMP)
This was signed by European Union (EU) member states in February 1986. It contains around 270 measures to create a borderless single market for goods, capital, services and people.

关税同盟-Customs union
欧盟也是关税同盟。其成员国对来自非欧盟国家的进口产品征收共同关税也可以在没有边境检查的情况下自由交易。欧盟国家自动受益于欧盟与其他国家达成的贸易协议，但不能设定自己的关税。（ The EU is also a customs union. Its members impose common tariffs on imports from non‑EU countries and can trade freely with each other without border checks. EU countries automatically benefit from trade deals that the EU strikes with other states but cannot set their own tariffs.）

其他贸易协定和经济组织

  • 非洲大陆自由贸易区-African Continental Free Trade Area;
  • 东盟自由贸易区-ASEAN Free Trade Area;
  • 全面和进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定-Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP);
  • 欧亚经济联盟-Eurasian Economic Union;
  • 欧盟委员会：双边贸易和投资协定-European Commission: bilateral trade and investment agreements;
  • 大阿拉伯自由贸易区-Greater Arab Free Trade Area;
  • 北美自由贸易协定-North American Free Trade Agreement;
  • 区域全面经济伙伴关系-Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership;
  • 南部非洲发展共同体-Southern African Development Community.
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CITF-TOPIC 1-Impact of global crises on world trade 学习笔记

全球危机对世界贸易的冲击-Impact of global crises on world trade

全球危机对世界贸易是双面的。新冠至2020年起严重地破坏了全球贸易，减缓了经济增长。但另一方面也使各方更为重视数字化的进程。（Global crises can have a positive or negative impact on world trade. The Covid-19 pandemic severely disrupted international trade and has caused negative economic growth since 2020.However, it has resulted in greater attention towards digitalisation.）

又如2007年至2008年的全球危机，其导致多国政府鼓励增加出口来解决内需锐减的问题。另一方面，这场危机也增加了合规和资本的要求。在某种程度上，这些新增的合规需求又对出口产生的抑制作用。（ On the other hand, the global financial crisis of 2007–08 led governments in many countries to address shrinking domestic demand by encouraging businesses to boost exports. Conversely, the 2007–08 financial crisis also led to an increase in compliance（合规） and capital requirements. In some instances, these additional regulatory requirements have acted as a disincentive to export.）

合规和资本的要求对全球贸易的冲击-Impact of compliance and capital requirements on world trade
  • 巴塞尔银行监管委员会-Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
    巴塞尔银行监管委员会制定了在全球范围内主要的银行资本和风险监管标准。（The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has created a framework that provides national regulators with resilient and credible regulatory guidelines that specify capital requirements. These are known as the Basel accords（巴塞尔协议）. These guidelines are then translated by local regulators into national regulations. For example, banks in the EU are subject to the Capital Requirements Regulation and Directive. In Singapore, banks are subject to regulatory instruments issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore based on the Basel accords. These instruments include Acts of Parliament, directions (directives and notices), guidelines and codes. The US Federal Reserve has issued directives on how the Basel rules apply in the USA.）
  • 风险加权资产-Risk-weighted assets
    用于评估银行对抗风险损失所需保持的最低资本充足率。An estimate of risk that determines the minimum level of regulatory capital a bank must maintain to deal with unexpected losses.
  • 巴塞尔协议二和三-Basel II and III
    巴塞尔协议的逐次修订，对银行的监管越来越严格，风险加权资产（资本充足率）进一步增加。（Since the publication of Basel II in 2004, banks have faced stricter rules for payments and all activities that involve risk. The financing of international trade is no exception. These rules were strengthened following the financial crisis with the publication of Basel III. As a result, banks have had to set aside a greater amount of risk‑weighted assets. In 2017, the BCBS set out further reforms to Basel III. See the Factfind panel at the end of this section.）
  • 其他法规及制裁-Other regulations and sanctions
    对于反洗钱的法规逐年增加。部分银行因违反制裁规则而受到处罚。对于军民两用货物的管控也进一步影响了货物流转（Regulations against money laundering are also increasing. In addition, banks are required to comply with sanctions that have been imposed on various countries. Some banks have faced severe penalties for breaching sanctions. Regulations governing the trade in dual‑use goods（双重用途货物，军用和民用） have also increasingly affected the smooth processing of transactions.）
    所有的法规都致力于减少风险敞口。许多银行通过对贸易金融的自查终止了部分客户关系。这反过来阻碍了全球贸易融资，对全球贸易产生了消极的影响。（All these regulations have led to a reduction in risk appetite. Many banks have reviewed their international trade finance activities resulting in the cessation（终止） of many client relationships. This has, in turn, impeded access to trade finance for companies of all sizes worldwide and threatened to have a negative impact on the evolution of world trade.）
新冠疫情对经济的破坏-Covid-19 pandemic devastates economic growth
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CITF-TOPIC 1-Risks involved in international trade 学习笔记

国际贸易的风险-Risks involved in international trade
挑战-Challenges
  • 文化与语言的差异。Cultural and language differences – difficulties in communication may cause delays or  misunderstanding resulting in additional costs.
  • 证明文件及其他手续。Documentation and other formalities – certain jurisdictions（司法管辖） may have complex documentation requirements that are different to the importer or exporter’s home country. These may affect both goods and services.
  • 运输及保险。Transport and insurance – it generally takes more time to ship goods over long distances. Additional costs relating to transport and insurance could be incurred.
  • 政治的考量。Political considerations – protectionism（贸易保护主义）, through the imposition of tariffs (关税) or quotas （配额）on imports, can have a significant impact on international trade.
  • 经济的考量。Economic considerations – legislation or taxation policies（法律及税收政策） can have an adverse impact（反向影响） on the expected profit from trade.
风险-Risks
  • 交易对手的风险。Counterparty risk – any commercial contract carries a certain degree of counterparty risk. However, enforcing contractual rights against a business located in another country can be more difficult than in the case of a domestic counterparty.
  • 汇率的风险。Foreign exchange risk – foreign currencies may be used for settlement. This can lead to unexpected financial gains or losses, unless managed very closely.
  • 合规风险。Compliance risks – smaller businesses may not have the resources to employ legal expertise to deal with different laws, regulations and sanctions(制裁) imposed by various jurisdictions.
  • 金融犯罪风险。Financial crime risks – international trade can sometimes act as a front for money laundering and fraud.  www.examcn.net
  • 欺诈。Fraud – it is easier to commit fraudulent acts where security is poor. Cybersecurity （网络安全）is, therefore, of increasing importance. If IT systems are weak, forged（伪造） documents or money may be sent to bank accounts under the control of fraudsters instead of to the seller’s bank. In countries where security is poor, domestic trade carries a similar level of risk to  international trade.
  • 其他操作风险。Other operational risks – employee error, fraud and communication issues（通讯问题） could be more likely to occur in some less developed countries.

 

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CITF-TOPIC 1- Risk mitigants 学习笔记

降低风险- Risk mitigants

Various measures are available to parties doing international business wishing to mitigate risks.

1.与当地国际商会建立关系-Connect with the local chamber of commerce
Most chambers of commerce provide services that facilitate trade（推动贸易）. They also act as conduits（渠道） to other service providers that can help with communication, translation, training and education, documentation and legal advice. Sometimes a chamber of commerce may help disseminate（传达） information about standards, protocols（协议） and interpretations（解释） of legal issues. This information could cover areas such as payment for transportation or other services.

2.银行或其他融资机构-Banks and other finance providers
All finance providers aim to reduce the effect of unexpected changes in foreign exchange rates through methods such as forward exchange contracts.
Banks also provide specific undertakings or guarantees to cover counterparty risk. These include documentary credits（信用证）, and indemnities（担保） for release of goods without bills of lading.

3.专业货物代理-Specialist freight forwarders
These exist to facilitate the safe transport of goods.

4.保险-Insurance
There are various versions of marine and cargo insurance available to reduce exposures incurred while goods are in transit.

5.政府部门或准政府部门-Government or quasi-government agencies
These can provide insurance against buyer default and can provide guarantees to help sellers to obtain finance that may not be commercially available.

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